Science Fiction

As the Scenario Planner at VisitScotland in 2004 (Yeoman & McMahon-Beattie, 2005), I facilitated a team to model and construct a set of scenarios which replicated the present COVID-19 pandemic reality. In the paper by Page et al. (2006) A case study of best practice - Visit Scotland's prepared response to an influenza pandemic, we predicted a global pandemic which meant international aviation coming to a halt for two to three years, lockdowns and social distancing. When combined, these effects would have a severe impact on Scottish tourism. However, very few believed us at the time and many people treated the scenarios with a degree of scepticism, as if they were from a science fiction film. Nearly twenty years later that science fiction scenario came true and COVID-19 was a reality. This is why science fiction and skepticism are important to me.

Professor Dr Ian Yeoman is a Professor of Disruption, Innovation and New Phenomena in Hospitality and Tourism at NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences in Leeuwarden, the Netherlands.

What is Science Fiction?

The word ‘science’ acquired its modern meaning ‘as reliable knowledge which is rooted in the evidence of the senses, carefully sifted by deductive reasoning and the experimental testing of generalisations’. In the 17th century, writers began producing speculative fictions about new discoveries and technologies that the application of scientific methods might bring about, the earliest examples being accommodated rather uncomfortably within existing genres of literature and narrative frameworks. Thus, science fiction is based upon the narrative of science.

Science fiction started in the pulp magazines invented in 1896 by Frank Munsey (Gunn, 2003). Mostly filled with adventure stories in a variety of locales and periods, they became more specialised beginning in 1915 with the introduction of Detective Story Monthly and the Western Story Magazine in 1919 and Love Stories in 1921. Hugo Gernsback, an immigrant from Luxembourg had published popular science magazines with science fiction stories in them. In 1926 he mustered his resources (and his courage) and founded Amazing Stories and a genre was born.

Science Fiction and the Future

This lead editorial in the first issue of the journal Futures aspires a utopian focus through science fiction on the creation of a better society, which echoes the history in Plato’s (1993) Republic and More’s Utopia (2016), in that each outlines a particular vision for a better society. Bell (2013) takes this proposition to explore the contributions and warnings of utopia and dystopia through science fiction as mechanisms for innovation, visions and business. Bell notes that science fiction acts as mechanisms for explanations of the future as prototypes. Prototypes act like mechanisms for interpretation or construction of fictional futures through stories of events or products (Johnson, 2011). While prototypes and scenarios are different concepts, both have emancipatory powers in which the future imagined espouses a belief that the future could actually occur, thus an explanatory mechanism (Wyss & Duran, 2001). Science fiction tends to evoke a visualisation of the future, a better future for humankind with some sort of science representation through a fictional account, hence ‘science’ and ‘fiction’ as science fiction (Forster et al., 2011).

The scenarios were pushed beyond the norm with some really unusual ideas but with a degree of plausibility.

Literary enthusiast Patrick Parrinder describes science fiction as a thinking machine that provides an outlet to visualise what could be, and therefore allows both reflection on what is, and some idea for planning what to do next. Science fiction stitches truths about humanity into the fabric of its unfamiliar worlds: when we imagine ourselves in stories’ novel scenarios, it provides good food for thought and the possibility to internalise applicable moral lessons.

Theoretical Base

In Science Fiction, Tourism and Disruption, Yeoman et al. (2021) conclude that for science fiction to be enacted as a lens to view the world or as a thinking machine, it needs a theoretical underpinning in order to understand it and use it in practice. Yeoman’s propositioned science fiction is based upon explanatory claims through weak signals as a mechanism of how the future could happen, the classic ’what if’ question. Yeoman and colleagues identified a number of concepts associated with science fiction research as an underpinning to create a science fiction narrative. First, an alternative universe or cosmic pluralism, where the future represents a divergence from one's own perspectives and realities. Second, given the popularity and bias towards dystopian literature in science fiction, the authors have proposed a new word to bridge dystopia and utopia, namely DysTopia, the continuum between the concepts. Here, utopia follows dystopia as hope emerges from dystopia as regenerative tourism emerges post COVID-19. Third, liminality is the blurring of reality and the unreal, between fact and fiction or the passageway in between. Fourth, hyperreality of authenticity is a form of knowledge based upon how we see the world of tourism through science fiction. Fifth, disruption and transformation are everywhere in the science fiction literature. Science fiction represents the radical alternatives, the unthinkable, science which has not been invented yet and an opposite to the status quo. Sixth, as science fiction does not represent reality, is not factual, and appears to be fictitious, many will treat it with scepticism. Finally, the seventh concept is narrative, as all science fiction, like scenarios, are based around fictional stories.

Wellington Zoo was the first ever zoo to be established in Aotearoa New Zealand after a group of residents petitioned Wellington City Council to establish a zoo for the people of Wellington. The Zoo is Wellington’s oldest conservation organisation, caring for animals since 1906, and is guided by their kaupapa ‘Me Tiaki, Kia Ora!’ In other words, the zoo aims to look after the environment, so all things flourish and to make sure that collectively, it makes a difference for animals and the wild. However, Wellington Zoo is continually faced with challenges which threaten its values, ethics and its role within Wellington and the wider community every day to the extent that many feel there is no place in modern society for zoos and caged animals. So, using the process of scenario planning and transformational thinking based upon science fiction, the management team at Wellington Zoo wanted to know what the zoo would look like in 2075 – they wanted to use science fiction as a thinking machine to challenge the norms and thoughts about the zoo to push the boundaries and think the unthinkable. A team of researchers from Te Herenga Waka - Victoria University of Wellington constructed four scenarios based upon theoretical proposition (Yeoman et al., 2021). The scenario narratives included:

How can we think outside, above and beyond the box?

1. Paradise Lost, the Dystopian scenario: the natural world is in a state of destruction
   COVID-29 has brought about a mutation and near destruction of the many species across the world. This mutation has created zoomie and aggressive types of animals which have gone to battle with humans, resulting in wars and destruction. In this scenario, Wellington Zoo has a role in the preservation of animals against the toxic COVID-29 virus and has become a refuge centre for many species. The zoo has a strong science focus and education-wise, the zoo tries to educate the community on how the zoo is responding to climate change and zoonotic viruses. The zoo uses animals to entertain visitors using a variety of close encounter experiences, generate enough money to continue to protect wildlife, educate people, and try to restore a positive perception of animals. Thus, there is an ethical dilemma in this scenario.
2. An Interconnected World is the Utopian scenario
   Society is seamlessly connected with the natural world and seeks to strengthen this connection as well as provide wildlife and the animal kingdom with freedom and safety. In this scenario, the zoo rebrands itself into a centre for natural science, technological development and education - called the Wellington Interactive Conservation Centre (WICC). There are several of these centres of varying sizes and specialisations throughout the wider Wellington region in which animals can roam freely in conservation areas. The animals are monitored and tagged. The areas are protected by ubiquitous, technologically controlled fences. Zookeepers become formally known as ‘animal guardians’. The management team of the WICC not only manage the WICC centres, they also form the management body for the development of natural habitats or areas, provide animal care and support, and attend to ’adopted’ nests or feeders around the city.
3. Animal Vaults, the Science Fiction/Fantasy scenario
   The natural world is threatened and on the brink of complete cataclysm. Society seeks to maintain and connect people to the natural world through artificially created animals. In this scenario, the role of Wellington Zoo is threefold: Firstly, it uses cloning and genetic engineering to generate profits for the conservation and species reintroduction efforts. Secondly, the zoo gives back to the community through entertainment and resource provision. Local residents can visit the zoo and see cloned and artificial animals in the interior of climate-controlled enclosures. The zoo has a commercial retail outlet, including a butcher’s shop of specialty meat cuts from exotic species, which are supplied to restaurants, both locally and internationally. The zoo’s high-class dining experience has two Michelin stars and has won several accolades for its ‘exotic cuisine’. The zoo’s REPET scheme can bring dead pets to life again through the process of genetic re-engineering. On the educational front, every student in the region visits the natural reserve as part of their curriculum to learn about the climate catastrophe and its impacts, and how the world looked before. This is a rare opportunity as the only natural reserve is left in New Zealand.
4. Singularity Zoo, the Technological Singularity scenario
   Reeling back from a climate catastrophe society, the zoo looks to re-establish harmed ecosystems through technological means. Additionally, the acceptance of technology and desire to preserve the natural world creates an increase in artificially created nature experiences and a separation from interaction with natural wildlife. In this scenario, technology enables the zoo to focus on the roles of educator, entertainer and protector of the natural world. But the scenario raises a number of issues including:
   
   • Technology will shift the role of human workers at the zoo with implications for the people affected as well as for the experience of those who visit and remain employed.
   • Cloning and gene editing raise ethical questions about the extent to which science should interfere in evolution, especially if these animals are being used for entertainment to a certain extent.
   • The rise of natural order activists who support animal rights raises the issues of using science to save a species.
   • The number of animals remaining physically accessible to people visiting the zoo as many species would be replaced by realistic AI images.

These scenarios certainly prompted a thought-provoking discussion with the management team and board at Wellington Zoo. In the words of Karen Fifield, CEO of the zoo, the scenarios were:

You can see cloned and artificial animals in the interior of climate-controlled enclosures.

"A timely reminder that change can be radical, transformational and necessary. The scenarios were creative and pushed out the boundaries beyond the norm with some really unusual ideas but with a degree of plausibility. Overall, the scenarios were refreshing, engaging and truly outside the box while maintaining the core element of empathy and connection with other living things. Some of the issues raised in the scenarios we would not want to see, thus it is really important to plan for change, work towards scenarios you prefer and prepare plans that create a better future.’

Concluding Thoughts

Using science fiction as a thinking machine or a means to find new ideas and forms of tourism is very important. Realising that the future of tourism is not the same as its past requires new ways of conceptualising the future. Scenario planning is accepted as the main research methodology in futures studies; however, it is sometimes constrained by plausibility and the political reality of change (Yeoman & McMahon-Beattie, 2005). So, how can we reinvent the future and take a more radical approach to creating the future beyond rational thinking to account for innovation, disruption and the unexpected? How can we think outside, above and beyond the box? This is the role of science fiction.

Sources

• Bell, F., Fletcher, G., Greenhill, A., Griffiths, M., & McLean, R. (2013). Science fiction prototypes: Visionary technology narratives between futures. Futures, 50 (June), 10. http://www.sciencedirect.com.helicon.vuw.ac.nz/science/journal/00163287/50
• Forster, E. M., Merchant, I., Ivory, J., Hopkins, A., Redgrave, V., & Thompson, E. (2011). Howards End. In. Australia]: Australia : Distributed by Shock DVD.
• Gunn, J. (2003). Foreword. In E. James & F. Mendlesohn (Eds.), The Cambridge Companion to Science Fiction (pp. xv-xviii). Cambridge University Press.
• Johnson, B. D. (2011). Science Fiction Prototyping Designing the Future with Science Fiction. In Synthesis lectures on computer science vol. 3. San Rafael: San Rafael : Morgan & Claypool Publishers.
• More, T. (2016). Utopia / Thomas More ; edited by George M. Logan ; translated by Robert Adams (Third edition. ed.). Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.
• Page, S., Yeoman, I., Munro, C., Connell, J., & Walker, L. (2006). A case study of best practice - Visit Scotland's prepared response to an influenza pandemic. Tourism Management, 27(3), 361-393. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.01.001
• Plato. (1993). Republic / Plato ; translated by Robin Waterfield. Oxford, U.K. : Oxford University Press.
• Wyss, G. D., & Duran, F. A. (2001). OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology. In E. United States. Department Of (Ed.): Sandia National Laboratories.
• Yeoman, I., McMahon-Beattie, U., & Sigala, M. (Eds.). (2021). Science Fiction, Disruption and Tourism. Channelview.
• Yeoman, I., & McMahon-Beattie, U. (2005). Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 5(3), 273-285.